The Pulse
$1,017,796 — GTA Avg Sold Price
Down 6.9% YoY (Year over Year)
Up 0.9% MoM (Month over Month)
$941,800 — Benchmark Price
Down 7.4% YoY
Up 0.3% MoM
47 Days — Average Days on Market
vs. 36 Days in March 2025
Read on to find out which neighbourhood didn’t get the memo about a soft market
Two Completely Different Signals
The market is sending two completely different signals at once.
The market is recovering! Cool your jets.
Here's what's actually happening. Two very different stories are playing out under the same roof:
Detached homes are quietly gaining ground. Month-over-month, freehold prices edged up 1.3%. Days on market are still elevated at 47 days across the GTA — but in tight pockets like Danforth Village-East York, homes are moving in 13 days and 57% are selling above asking. That's not a soft market. That's a seller's market wearing a trench coat.
Condos are a completely different story. The 416 condo segment is off 9–12% year-over-year, sitting at an average of $620,479. There are 14,291 unsold new condo units sitting in the GTA pipeline. For the first time in over 30 years, zero new condo projects launched in the GTHA this quarter. That's not a blip — that's a structural freeze.
The real takeaway: 'the Toronto market' doesn't exist. There's a condo market and a freehold market, and they're heading in opposite directions right now.
One more thing nobody's talking about enough: power of sale listings hit 450 in March — 3.1% of all new listings, the highest share in a decade. Distress is real in specific pockets. If you know how to spot them, that's your window.
Neighbourhood Spotlight
Danforth Village–East York: The neighbourhood that didn't get the memo about a soft market.
Every week we put one Toronto neighbourhood under the lens. This week: Danforth Village–East York, because it's telling a story the macro data completely obscures.
While the broader GTA is averaging 47 days on market and a 98% sale-to-list ratio (meaning buyers are getting small discounts), Danforth Village–East York is averaging 13 days on market with a 106.9% sale-to-list ratio. More than half of homes are selling in under 10 days. Over half are going above asking.
Average sold price sits around $1.25M, with an average listing price of $1.3M — and listing prices are actually 5% below the wider Toronto average, which means buyers get the value perception of an 'affordable' neighbourhood while competing in a market that acts anything but.
Why is this pocket so tight? A few things converging: the GO and TTC access along the Danforth corridor is underrated, the neighbourhood has genuine community character (independent restaurants, walkability, older housing stock people actually want to live in), and it hasn't been overrun by investor condo towers that flood supply in other areas.
If you're a buyer watching this neighbourhood: don't wait for a price drop that isn't coming. If you own here: your asset is holding up better than almost anywhere in the 416.
The Move This Month
New listings just dropped 16.7%. Here's why that's your signal to act — in either direction.
March saw new listings fall off a cliff — down 16.7% year-over-year. Only 14,442 properties hit the market, pulling active inventory to 21,596. Months of supply tightened from 5.0 to 4.3.
This is the pivot point. Supply is contracting just as sales are ticking up (GTA saw its first positive year-over-year sales reading in six months — up 1.7%). When those two lines cross in a meaningful way, the buyer's leverage window closes fast.
If you're a buyer: the next 60–90 days are your window. You still have negotiating room (homes are selling at 98% of asking on average across the GTA), sellers are still motivated, and competition hasn't fully returned. By late summer, if the supply trend continues, that calculus flips.
If you're a seller sitting on a freehold property: spring 2026 may be the best positioning window you'll have for 12–18 months. The condo market is struggling to absorb its oversupply, which pushes demand toward freeholds. You have more motivated buyers than you think.
The move: if you've been sitting on the fence about buying or listing, stop optimizing for the perfect moment. This is closer to it than most people realize.
WHAT THEY'RE NOT TELLING YOU
“The market is recovering” is doing a lot of heavy lifting right now.
Every major outlet ran some version of the same headline this week: Toronto real estate is bouncing back. Sales up. Prices stabilizing. Spring optimism.
Here's the part they buried:
First, that +1.7% year-over-year sales increase is being compared against one of the worst months on record. Growing off a historically weak base is still growth, but let's not confuse it with momentum.
Second, the Bank of Canada is no longer pricing in rate cuts — it's now on a path toward two potential quarter-point hikes before December. That completely changes the affordability math for anyone buying with a variable rate or renewing a mortgage this year. Every 0.25% move in the policy rate changes monthly payments by about $13 per $100,000 in mortgage balance.
Third, the HST rebate on new construction that's being marketed as 'relief for buyers'? Developers are quietly factoring it into their asking prices. You're not getting a deal — you're getting the same price with a different label on it. The social media discourse on this one is actually ahead of the mainstream coverage for once.
The market isn't recovering. It's stabilizing — and those are very different things. One signals momentum, the other signals the floor. Know which one you're standing on.
The move: if you've been sitting on the fence about buying or listing, stop optimizing for the perfect moment. This is closer to it than most people realize.
THE LISTING THAT CAUGHT OUR EYE
The “power of sale” category is worth watching right now.
We won't link a specific listing this week because the most interesting category isn't a single property — it's a type. Power of sale listings just hit 450 in March, the highest share of new listings in a decade at 3.1%.
Power of sale means a lender — not the owner — is selling the property to recover what's owed. The seller (the bank) has one goal: recover the debt. They're not sentimental about the kitchen renovation or the landscaping. This creates motivated pricing.
A recent Niagara Falls power of sale printed at a 47% loss versus the original purchase price. That's an extreme case, but it illustrates the range. Within Toronto, these are showing up in pockets where investor-owned condos with negative cash flow have become unsustainable.
Next week we'll spotlight a specific listing worth talking about. If you've seen one that caught your attention — reply to this email and send it through.